#StrategyIRL: Checkmate - Why Most AI Strategies Are Three Moves from Losing

Last weekend, I was playing chess with my 9-year-old son when he made a brilliant opening move, then immediately started planning his checkmate. "Mom, I'm going to win with my queen and rooks!"

I smiled and captured his pawn. "But what about your back rank, buddy?"

He looked down at his exposed king and his face dropped. "I forgot about the pieces I can't see."

That's when it hit me - most executives are making the exact same mistake with their AI strategies.

Why Your AI Strategy Is Playing Someone Else's Game

From the moment you wake up to the moment you fall asleep, AI is quietly working behind the scenes to shape your day. Your smart alarm uses AI to wake you during the lightest phase of your sleep, while your voice assistant delivers weather updates, traffic reports, and your daily schedule. As you commute, electric vehicles and navigation apps analyze real-time traffic patterns to find the fastest route, and at work, AI helps filter your emails, transcribe meetings, and suggest writing improvements.

But here's what most executives don't see: every single one of these AI touchpoints depends on a chess board where someone else controls the key pieces.

Over the last decade, I've watched companies make seemingly brilliant AI moves while never thinking about the players who control the back rank. In the long game of tech supremacy that continues to play out, the queen and king are increasingly being left exposed. I see this firsthand as a board member at CanStar Resources and an executive in digital infrastructure at Flexnode. The companies winning in the AI era aren't just the ones with the best algorithms. They're the ones who understand that strategic leadership means navigating the entire chess board, not just the pieces in front of you.

The Back Rank Mate No One Sees Coming

Nearly 70% of global cobalt production occurs in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a region where political instability can end the game overnight. Over 80% of rare earth element processing happens in China, creating dependencies that turn your AI strategy into their opening gambit.

Yet I've watched countless executives betting billions on AI development while treating supply chain like background noise. That's not strategy - that's playing chess while ignoring half the board.

The math is brutal and reveals the real chess game: demand for lithium and cobalt will triple by 2030, while 80% of rare earth processing remains concentrated in China. Meanwhile, 70% of global cobalt still comes from the politically unstable DRC. Companies that haven't mapped their supply chain dependencies aren't just planning to lose material but are setting themselves up for checkmate.

What Strategic Navigation Really Looks Like

At CanStar, we're not trying to control the entire mining industry; we're positioning ourselves as a strategic piece in the North American supply chain chess game. As a junior mining company focused on critical minerals, we understand our opportunity to provide optionality and reduce single-source dependencies, which is a true imperative for the technology sector.

At Flexnode, I've seen how understanding the full chess board transforms digital infrastructure decisions. When you know that your edge computing strategy depends on minerals extracted from geopolitically complex regions, you don't just design differently. You position your pieces to have multiple pathways to victory.

This is what I call "full-board strategic thinking" - the ability to see how pieces you don't control can still determine whether you win or lose. Even just being aware of the full chessboard - or in this case, supply chain - is an important starting point to achieving better outcomes in any game or industry.

The Strategic Moves that Avoid Checkmate

All companies need to understand and adopt AI in the years (months) to come. Doing so requires leaders to think of your business strategy like chess pieces, each with specific roles and capabilities:

♔ King's Position - Board-Level Chess Thinking: Your board needs directors who can see the entire game, not just the digital pieces. The executives who understand how physical infrastructure constraints shape technological possibilities are the ones making moves three steps ahead.

♕ Queen's Power - Supply Chain Intelligence: Using AI and blockchain to anticipate supply disruptions isn't just operational efficiency, it's like seeing your opponent's next three moves before they make them. This is your most powerful strategic piece.

♖ Rook's Strength - Geographic Diversification: Companies building relationships with domestic mining operations and allied nations aren't just reducing risk, they're creating positional advantages that become impossible for competitors to replicate quickly.

♗ Bishop's Vision - Sustainable Sourcing as Strategic Positioning: The companies integrating ethical sourcing into their AI supply chains will capture the $12 trillion sustainability investment wave while their competitors scramble to respond to moves they never saw coming. With GB200 level power needs barely met today, even companies uninterested in sustainability will feel the pressure to source and design in new, liquid and optimized energy ways.

♘ Knight's Mobility - Multiple Pathways to Victory: Most executives can describe their software architecture but couldn't map its dependencies on the broader manufacturing or mineral supply chain dependencies if their market position depended on it. Strategic leaders push themselves to learn more. They trace their technology to manufacturing through to the raw materials level and create multiple routes to their objectives.

♙ Pawn's Advancement - Workforce Evolution: Launch reskilling initiatives to empower employees for AI-augmented roles, transforming human capital from supporting pieces into advancing forces that can reach the other side of the board. Push system-level thinking to create more informed business leaders who appreciate supply and demand in a categorically broader way.

“My philosophy is simple: manage risk, focus on returns and remember mining is about playing the long game. My strategy for success is to be transparent, open-minded and welcome the challenge.” says Catherine Raw in the Northern Miner. 

Why this Chess Game Matters More than Your Next Product Launch

You can't win a game when you're only looking at half the board. The executives who understand this - who see the connections between mineral extraction and machine learning, between geopolitical stability and digital transformation - are the ones positioning their companies to control key squares in the AI economy.

Through my work at CanStar Resources and Flexnode, I help leadership teams navigate this complex chess game between digital ambition and physical reality. Because in the end, the most sophisticated AI in the world is just an exposed king if you can't power it, cool it, or manufacture the chips that run it.

After our chess game, my son looked up and said, "Mom, next time I'm going to look at the whole board before I move my queen."

Smart kid. Even smarter lesson.

Want to make sure your AI strategy isn't heading for checkmate? As someone who operates at the intersection of public company governance and digital infrastructure execution, I help boards and executive teams see the full chess board before they make their next big move. Let's talk about how full-board strategic thinking could transform your competitive positioning.

Connect with me to explore board advisory opportunities or strategic consulting engagements. NBG Strategy Consulting